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Prediction for CME (2023-03-17T10:58:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-17T10:58Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24285/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME overlaps the CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-03-17T10:30Z to the SW. There are currently ongoing campaigns impacting the amount of available imagery for the SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs. The source of this CME is a large filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 starting around 2023-03-17T08:50Z with full lift off by 2023-03-17T12:17Z. The filament has it's largest mass centered around S40W30, but stretches between the longitudes of 0 degrees to 40 degrees and the latitudes of -20 degrees to -50 degrees. Possible minor arrival signature includes gradual increase of total magnetic field to over 11 nT with rotation of at least two magnetic field components, possibly indicating a CME arrival/glancing blow. It is likely embedded in a HSS. Waiting for assessment from LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-20T22:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-21T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Event id="311"

From SIDC Ursigram Issued: 2023 Mar 20 1247 UTC

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDCÂ Â Â Â  #
# (RWC Belgium)Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â  #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 30320
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Mar 2023, 1246UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Mar 2023 until 22 Mar 2023)

...

The solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are
expected to be slightly enhanced due to a forecasted mild high speed stream
arrival and a small chance for possible glancing blow arrivals related to
the UTC morning and evening filament eruptions in the south-west sector on
March 17th.

Lead Time: 11.27 hour(s)
Difference: -5.38 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-03-20T11:21Z

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